The latest Emerson College Polling/Pix11/The Hill survey of New York voters finds Governor Kathy Hochul with 50% support for re-election, while 44% plan to support Republican Lee Zeldin. Four percent are undecided, and 2% plan to vote for someone else. Undecided voters were asked whom they lean towards supporting, and with their support allocated, Hochul’s support increases to 52% and Zeldin holds at 44%. Since the September Emerson/Pix11/The Hill poll, Hochul has held her 50% support while Zeldin’s support has increased nine percentage points, from 35% to 44%.
Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, said: “In September, Hochul was winning independent voters 47% to 35%. Over a month later, a 52% majority of independent voters now support Zeldin, and 41% support Hochul. Independent men break toward Zeldin 58% to 37%, and independent women are split: 46% support Zeldin and 45% Hochul.”
In the election for US Senate, 51% plan to support incumbent Chuck Schumer, while 36% support Joe Pinion. Eight percent are undecided. With their support allocated, Schumer’s support increases to 53% and Pinion to 40%. Since September, Senator Schumer has lost three percentage points and Joe Pinion has gained five percentage points.
President Biden holds a 47% disapproval among New York voters, and 46% approval. In a hypothetical 2024 presidential election between President Biden and former President Trump, 47% would vote for Biden and 40% for Trump. Eleven percent would vote for someone else and 3% are undecided. Since last month, Biden’s support has lowered six points, while Trump’s support has increased two percentage points.
The economy is the top issue for 33% of New York voters in determining their November vote, followed by threats to democracy (15%), crime (13%), abortion access (11%), and healthcare (7%).
Fifty-seven percent (57%) of voters think the current bail reform policy in New York has increased crime, while 28% think it has had no impact on crime, 16% think it has decreased it.
When asked if they think abortion should be allowed in the third trimester, 36% think they should always be allowed, 29% think they should be allowed if there is risk to the mother’s life, 17% think they should be allowed only in cases of rape or incest, and 18% think they should never be allowed.
A plurality of New York voters (46%) think New York should stop accepting migrants from other states, while 36% throughout the state think they should continue. Nineteen percent are neutral or have no opinion.
As Mayor Eric Adams has called for a state of emergency in New York on the migrant crisis, a majority of voters (56%) blame the federal government for the migrant crisis, 29% of voters blame southern states, 8% blame Governor Hochul, and 7% blame Mayor Adams.
The majority of voters (55%) say they are more likely to vote following the overturning of Roe v. Wade, while 40% say it makes no difference on their likelihood to vote. Five percent are less likely to vote.
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling/Pix11/The Hill New York poll was conducted October 20-24, 2022. The sample consisted of very likely voters, n=1,000, with a Credibility Interval (CI), similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, party registration, education, region, and race/ethnicity based on 2022 turnout modeling. Turnout modeling is based on US Census parameters, and New York voter registration and voter turnout data (NY Secretary of State).
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and know with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
Data was collected contacting cell phones via SMS-to-web (n=265), an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines (n=574), and an online panel of 18-34 year olds via Centiment (n=162).
Probability-based sampling methods are used by contacting a list of registered voters provided by Aristotle, via cell phones via SMS-to-web and landlines via Interactive Voice Response (IVR), and non-probability based sampling methods are implemented by contacting an online panel, provided by Centiment. The online panel supplements the landline and cellphone sample by contacting 18-34 year old New York residents.
Attention checks are included in surveys. Quality checks are implemented for time, either too short or too long. Inconsistencies in answer choices are checked, for example non-registered voters claiming to have voted in previous elections. Individuals who straight-line a survey are eliminated from the sample. Respondents are tracked to ensure only one survey per SMS web link can be completed.
This survey was conducted by Emerson College Polling, and sponsored by Nexstar Media, who own Pix11 & The Hill. All questions asked in this survey with exact wording, along with full results and cross tabulations can be found here.
